Live Updates: #StormLorenzo – October 2019

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We’ve compiled a list of emergency numbers that you may need throughout #Lorenzo.
Be informed and stay safe!

Live Blog / Updates:

The latest Meteorologists Commentary on #Lorenzo:

“Met Éireann have issued a weather advisory for expected very wet and potentially stormy conditions over parts of Ireland later Thursday and early Friday. These conditions will be from the extra-tropical storm Lorenzo, which at present is a Category 2 hurricane about 3000km southwest of Ireland.

More precisely at 0900Z/01-10-2019, Hurricane Lorenzo is situated at 33.4N 39.7W, 1000km southwest of Flores in the western Azores, with winds estimated to be 85kts and minimum central pressure 962hPa. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane conditions (Cat 1) to western parts of the Azores beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday, with both Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings in effect here. Very high/phenomenal seas will be generated on the eastern side of Lorenzo as it tracks north-northeastwards over the coming days, with swells currently spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin.

Image: Met Éireann
Image: Met Éireann

Lorenzo’s eye has become less distinct on satellite images, but the system remains very well organized with tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains quite well defined.

The spread from various global weather models is converging towards a consensus, with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting) the most likely forecast trajectory.

Image: Met Éireann
Image: Met Éireann

The image above shows the spread in outcomes in the latest ensemble output. The ECMWF model uses a range of slightly different initial values to calculate 50 possible solutions. This is known as an ensemble, and is used by Met Éireann meteorologists to understand uncertainty in the forecast and the range of possible weather. From today’s daily conference discussion (08:45) between Met Éireann, UK Met Office and the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC/NOAA) Lorenzo is expected to transition into an extra-tropical depression within 48hours approximately 1000km southwest of Ireland.

Met Éireann’s high resolution forecast model, HARMONIE, which forecasts two days in advance, will give us more detailed guidance as Lorenzo approaches and warnings will be issued early Wednesday.

The first image below shows the forecast wind speed (on the Beaufort scale, see conversion chart below) and pressure from our HARMONIE model valid at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, while the next image shows the forecast wind speed valid at 12:00 UTC on Thursday.”

Hurricane Lorenzo in Climatological context:

Hurricane Lorenzo is the eastern most and northern most category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to make its transition from hurricane to extra-tropical storm when it is approximately at 49 degrees North, approximately 1000km to the southwest of Ireland. By comparison, storm Ophelia in October 2017 retained its hurricane status until it was within 500km of Ireland.”

Source: Meteorologists Commentary – Met Éireann.



Met Éireann have issued Weather Advisory for Ireland, valid from Thursday 03 October 2019 12:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 12:00 as #HurricaneLorenzo (expected to then be Storm Lorenzo) tracks closer to us.

  • Forecasters are expecting that there it a high probability that Storm Lorenzo will track close to or over Ireland later on Thursday and early Friday, giving high seas, severe winds and heavy rain. Warnings will be issued Wednesday morning.

Issued/Updated: Tuesday 01 October 2019 11:00
Valid:  Thursday 03 October 2019 12:00 to Friday 04 October 2019 12:00

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Image: National Hurricane Centre




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