Help Support Cork Safety Alerts – Donate the price of a coffee here via Stripe: https://csalert.ie/donate
TORRO (The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation)
have issued a ‘Tornado Watch’ for Ireland.
The organisation say ‘there is the risk of a few tornadoes, and the potent shear means a strong tornado is possible, especially across the RoI and N Ireland.’ Alan O’Reilly from Carlow Weather says that these ‘are very difficult to forecast and would be localised if they do occur.’
Areas affected
- RoI
- N Ireland
- Parts of Scotland
- A small part of N England
- IoM
Hazards
- Tornadoes
- Wind gusts to 80-100mph
- Hail to 20mm diameter
- CG lightning
Discussion
A powerful Atlantic storm, named Isha by the UK Met Office will affect the RoI and UK later on Sunday and overnight into Monday morning. A cold front will push NE and E across all areas through this period. Across the Tornado Watch area, a potent mid-level trough and speed max (500 hPa mid-level jet max of ~120 knots) will overspread the frontal zone, and induce a powerful low-level jet in advance of the front (850 hPa flow of ~90 knots). This will produce exceptional low-level shear values across the area, especially across the RoI and N Ireland, e.g. 0-1km SREH values of over 700 J/Kg, and 0-3km values of around 1000 J/Kg. There will also be some modest instability, which the strong shear should augment, allowing the chance of rotating structures, including shallow supercells, to develop, as well as a broken line of convection exhibiting QLCS charateristics.
In and close to the watch area, there is the risk of a few tornadoes, and the potent shear means a strong tornado is possible, especially across the RoI and N Ireland. Additionally, the very strong low-level flow will be mixed to the surface in stronger cores, bringing the risk of gusts of 70-80mph, and perhaps 90-100mph in a few spots, even inland. Any supercell which can develop may produce hail, which could reach severe levels, and a few CG lightning strikes are possible too, especially across the RoI and N Ireland.
A Convective Discussion covers the remainder of England, along with Wales.